Anyway, here first is the American League. First column is the full season rating, second column is the rating weighted for recent performance (I've found this to be more accurate for future projection and so it's bolded), and the third column is the projected full season win total.
| Rating | Weighted | Season Wins | |
| Yankees | .618 | .617 | 101.4 |
| Rays | .577 | .580 | 95.7 |
| Red Sox | .570 | .566 | 91.9 |
| Rangers | .539 | .558 | 89.9 |
| Twins | .538 | .537 | 86.6 |
| Angels | .523 | .527 | 84.1 |
| Tigers | .512 | .523 | 87.5 |
| White Sox | .513 | .514 | 87.4 |
| Athletics | .494 | .505 | 78.3 |
| Blue Jays | .486 | .491 | 88.5 |
| Mariners | .495 | .484 | 69.7 |
| Royals | .459 | .461 | 72.8 |
| Indians | .451 | .441 | 66.4 |
| Orioles | .429 | .418 | 58.5 |
Next are the projected final standings with only the "games back" listing. Rounded to the nearest full game, of course.
| AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST | |||
| Yankees | -- | Tigers | -- | Rangers | -- |
| Rays | -5 | White Sox | -- | Angels | -6 |
| Red Sox | -9 | Twins | -- | Athletics | -12 |
| Blue Jays | -13 | Royals | -14 | Mariners | -20 |
| Orioles | -43 | Indians | -21 | ||
| WILD CARD | |||||
| Rays | -- | ||||
| Red Sox | -4 | ||||
| Blue Jays | -8 | ||||
| AL Central | -9 |
Mostly straightforward here. You might notice how much Texas benefits from the weighting. Their schedule has been pretty weak lately but they have taken full advantage and Vegas has been happy to give them their due. If anything, the six-game cushion I'm predicting is too low since it doesn't know they added Cliff Lee.
The other interesting thing is the predicted three-way tie in the Central. Vegas still likes Minnesota, even though they are the laggards in the real standings. For what it's worth, I think I agree with them, as their rotation is fairly solid top-to-bottom, though Morneau being out for a long stretch might be enough to kill them in a tight race. Chicago has been one team that's mystified me all year. They look mediocre at best and yet Vegas has held out hope all year until finally the last few weeks they caught fire to validate the respect (that's why you trust the numbers over your own instincts every day of the week). None of the three teams is all that good, evidenced by the fact that any of them would be fifth in the East.
National League
| Rating | Weighted | Season Wins | |
| Cardinals | .575 | .563 | 89.3 |
| Phillies | .566 | .552 | 88.3 |
| Dodgers | .543 | .542 | 88.0 |
| Braves | .546 | .538 | 92.0 |
| Rockies | .536 | .527 | 87.0 |
| Giants | .524 | .522 | 84.8 |
| Reds | .498 | .512 | 86.1 |
| Mets | .497 | .509 | 85.2 |
| Cubs | .522 | .506 | 75.6 |
| Padres | .491 | .502 | 87.2 |
| Marlins | .509 | .499 | 78.8 |
| Brewers | .505 | .499 | 76.6 |
| Nationals | .455 | .477 | 72.7 |
| Dbacks | .482 | .466 | 67.6 |
| Astros | .444 | .446 | 68.2 |
| Pirates | .419 | .429 | 61.8 |
Projected Standings
| NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST | |||
| Braves | -- | Cardinals | -- | Dodgers | -- |
| Phillies | -4 | Reds | -3 | Padres | -1 |
| Mets | -7 | Brewers | -12 | Rockies | -1 |
| Marlins | -13 | Cubs | -13 | Giants | -3 |
| Nationals | -19 | Astros | -21 | Dbacks | -20 |
| Pirates | -27 | ||||
| WILD CARD | |||||
| Phillies | -- | ||||
| Padres | -1 | ||||
| Rockies | -1 | ||||
| Reds | -2 | ||||
| Mets | -3 | ||||
| Giants | -3 |
From my perspective, much more interesting here. If you'll allow me, I have to say that these ratings have been extremely prophetic so far this season. They correctly predicted the rise of Atlanta, Texas, and the White Sox. If someone had been selling shares of those teams, I could have bought them at low prices in the past couple months and them sold them right now at huge profits. Alas.
I mention this because if my numbers are to be trusted there are some changes coming in the NL standings. Cincinnati, holding a small lead, is expected to finish three game up (though with the big caveat that the Cardinals have had some curiously weak lines lately, meaning that Vegas may be about to abandon ship on their league favorite). Similarly, it took a very long time, but it looks like Vegas finally believes in the Reds as at least a worthy pennant race participant. That's nothing compared to the tightest division in baseball, the NL West. All season, San Diego has been leading the pack. All season, Vegas has considered them pretenders. Finally, enough of the season has been completed so that the difference between results and expectations is close enough to expect the Padres to stay in the race right until the end. They have the misfortune of competing against two teams Vegas likes to make a second-half run, though, in LA and Colorado. The Dodgers especially should be a feared team, coming in with a weighted rating a full 40 points higher than San Diego.
Finally, Philadelphia is currently two back in the Wild Card standings, but are favored to win it. Adding in the Mets and Giants, and more than half the NL projects within three games of the playoffs.
No comments:
Post a Comment