Gary Patterson's False God

I don't usually get off on nitpicking idiot statements, but this story really hits on a few of my interests and drives me nuts at the same time. Here then are my comments interspersed with the story:

On a day when Gary Patterson received a contract extension through 2016, the TCU coach stated that the Horned Frogs can win a national championship despite not being in a BCS conference.

Mr Patterson, you have done a nice job with your team this year, but the ridiculous things you're going to say in this article pathetically prove that you have no business receiving a 7-year contract extension.

And he thinks they can do so without a playoff system.

No, you can't. You're like a black person voting for George Wallace.

Patterson, whose contract included salary increases for his assistants, maintains that he's in favor of the bowl games and not a playoff system.

"Is it easier to win one game for a championship? Or to have to win four?" Patterson asked. "If you have a playoff, you practice and get on a plane and play. And if you lose, it's over. If you go to a bowl game, you're there seven days and the kids can enjoy a place and get rewarded."

Let's set aside the stupid comment about his players enjoying themselves at a bowl game since that's irrelevant and he knows it. He pretty clearly is admitting here that his teams will never be good enough to win a title through a playoff system because it would require them winning multiple games against top competition. He knows that it's far more likely for his team to catch lightning in a bottle and upset one elite team than it is win four in a row. This proves he understands probability. Good for him. I can't get past the fact that he knows his teams aren't good enough to be considered legitimate national champions and that he feels it's ok to continue the current system because it leaves the door open for a non-legit champ to sneak in.

Patterson noted that there's still a chance his 12-0 team -- TCU's first undefeated squad since 1938 -- could play for a national title this season. For that to happen, No. 4 TCU would need Nebraska to upset No. 3 Texas in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Then, the Horned Frogs would need the BCS formula to work in its favor.

Good luck with that, Gary. But hey, that's the way you want it. Go ahead delude yourself.

"We had a vision nine years ago of reaching a BCS bowl and going to a national championship," said Patterson, who is 85-27 after completing his ninth season. "A lot of people laughed and shook their heads and said, 'Well, that's nice.' We're now crossing that threshold.

"We feel like we're very blessed. I do not feel like our work is done. We still have a mountain to climb, a championship to win."

Patterson, who has led TCU to five 11-win seasons in the last seven years, believes that playing for a national title is as much about reputation as anything.

Of course. Which is exactly why a system that was created by the big schools for the big schools will never benefit a non-reputable program like Texas Christian University.

"You have to show that you can play with everybody consistently," he said. "You have to establish you can do it every year."

Last season, TCU finished No. 7 in the Associated Press and USA Today polls, the highest-ranked two-loss team in the nation. If the Frogs win a BCS bowl this season, they could begin 2010 in the top 5.

Gary wouldn't have a clue about this because he's an idiot, but that would be unprecedented, by far. The highest preseason ranking for any non-BCS school in the BCS era (since 1998) is 14th. TCU could begin 2010 in the top 5, sure. I could swim across the Atlantic Ocean in 45 minutes, too.

That means fewer teams to leapfrog on the way to a possible BCS national championship berth. TCU started this season 17th in both polls.

Told you so.

Patterson said even though TCU is not in a BCS conference, the program is gaining national respect and is proving it can play in the big games.

"Ninety percent of the teams [in the BCS] don't have an opportunity to win a national championship," Patterson said. "It's the same 10 teams. We've now gone to a BCS over 80 percent of the Big 12, 80 percent of the SEC, 80 percent of the Big 10. We've achieved something that all those other teams talk about because they are part of a conference that can get there. We've now jumped over a hurdle by going to a BCS game."

Gary, first, you're talking gibberish so who knows what you're actually saying; second, you don't know what the hell you're talking about. Since 1998, there have been 94 slots open for teams in BCS games. 90 of those have been filled by BCS teams. There have been 22 berths into national title games, and of course all 22 of them have gone to BCS teams.

Those 90 berths from BCS teams have come from a total of 37 different schools. 37 schools out of the 65 total BCS schools. That's 57%. 11 different schools playing for a title, out of 65. That's 17%.

The three non-BCS schools that have taken the four total non-BCS team berths (TCU this year will be the fourth non-BCS and 41st overall school) come from a pool of 52 non-BCS schools. That's 6%. And 0 title game berths is 0%.

Patterson quickly said the BCS bowl wasn't official, as bowl pairings will be announced Sunday.

"We're going into houses and everyone knows about TCU," Patterson said. "The only thing that was held over our heads was we couldn't play in a BCS game or play for a national championship."

Patterson believes strongly that isn't the case anymore.

Ol Gary is saying that he prefers a system that has never ever given a team such as his even a chance to win a title. He's using blind faith that this system is different now, even though you could find zero evidence this is true and even less of a motivation from those who control the system to change it. I think this is similar to Ralph Nader saying he loves the two-party US political system because it gives him, a third-party candidate, the best chance at winning an election.

If, however, the system itself were something like a 16-team playoff, which is what Gary uses as the opposing view to his dear simple 1 vs 2 BCS title game, then teams like TCU would have far more access (I know, anything counts as "far more" than zero, but we're playing Gary's game here). In the BCS era, 12 times a non-BCS school has finished in the top 16 of the final BCS standings, which is presumably what would be used to populate a playoff. An unaffiliated committee might actually have granted even more spots. But that's at least 12 chances for the little guys. 12 opportunities to "play for a national championship," which is the whole point of what Gary is saying here.