Once more into the breach

But now with trepidation.
Ok so I thinking of falling off the wagon again. Or falling on or whatever. I participated in an NFL picks minipool with a couple friends two weeks ago and did fairly well. So well that I'm rueing not having made actual online wagers on the games. So well that I'm wanting to open up an account and have a go at online gambling again. Actually, if you know me even a tiny bit, you know that it doesn't take much to effect these desires.
As I am a few years older and some dollars lighter thanks to my last foray into online gambling, I approach this attempt more conservatively and certainly more analytically (or at least I'm going to give the impression of the latter). In this vein, I've decided to pick every game both on point spreads and over/unders, in order to get a true feel for my prognosticating powers. Picking every game is key because when gambling online for real I will usually only select 5-6 wagers per week, the ones I'm presumably most confident in, while the others I'll leave for the suckers to pick. The problem is that unless you are truly excellent are picking games, your judgement on what's most certain will be just as random as your overall picks. The other reason for selecting every game is to expand the sample size and to eliminate having the memory of only a couple nice victories overshadow several losses. This selective memory I believe is my achilles heel as a sports gambler, and truly the mark of a potentially dangerous gambler. So I'm approaching this from a hopefully humble and pragmatic fashion. (Also, for my own curiosity and vanity, I'm going to specially designate 6 games each week as confident picks, to simulate games that I would actually bet on were the exercise done for real. This will allow me to track my overall acumen while getting a feel for whether or not my confidence is lucky or actually a product of some positive trend.
Results so far:
Week5:
14-8 overall (2 pushes)
5-5 Against the spread
9-3 over/unders
Week 6:
16-12 overall
10-4 ATS
6-8 O/U
5-1 in Special Picks

So we've got a bit to work with so far. 30-20 overall, 15-9 ATS, 15-11 O/U. Assuming a standard $22 bet on each wager gives me a +$160 overall, split into +$102 for ATS and +$58 O/U. My 5-1 special picks from Week 6 would have netted me $78 in profit.
These obviously are good results overall, but still erratic when you notice my strong suit switched from ATS wagers one week to O/Us the next. And of course the 83% success rate on special picks far outpaces my 60% mark overall, meaning that it real terms I would have won lots of money this week but would surely have to expect to come back to earth some in the coming weeks. The big positive news is that, for now, "back to earth" is still a 60% success rate.
It should be noted that given the standard vig ($22 bet only wins you $20 profit on a win, whereas a $22 bet loses you the full $22 on a loss), you must win at least 52.38% of the time to break even. So if I'm not doing at least that well, I shouldn't be playing.
I'll be checking back in periodically with updates on my performance. I promise it will be cleaner and more concise. Not like anyone cares. Well, after I start winning big and turning into a big shot and picking up bar tabs, then some sonsabitches will care.

*To look at my Week 6 results even closer, my ATS bets won by a total of 122 pts for an average victory margin of +8.7. My 10 wins were by an average +15.6 pts, while my 4 losses were by an average -8.5 pts. This is good and indicates that my wins weren't simply due to luck or close calls.