Get Real: Two Points on Election 2008

Gee, this is two straight posts about politics. You'd think there was an election going on or something.
1. As it seems more likely that Obama will win (see #2), it's interesting to view his candidacy and campaign and compare it to the past couple elections. Please now note the seeming superficial absurdity of comparing GWBush to Obama, with all the attendant automatic shock involved therein.
- Democrats now hate that part of why Bush beat Gore in 2000 was the simple and irresponsible fact that many people voted for him based on the fact that he seemed like a more personable guy (The infamous "who would you rather have a beer with" approach to voting, which seemed like a benign enough idea in fall 2000 as both the economy and the twin towers were still riding fairly high).
So, how is election 2008 going? Not like I am a perfect national bellweather, but it seems pretty obvious that a large chunk of Obama's advantage right now could be attributed to the fact that most of America finds him to simply be more personable and generally attractive.
The most instructive way to react to this analysis is not to revel in the hypocrisy of any Obama-supporting Democrat who complains about how dumb Americans vote not on issues but on superficialities, but instead to realize simply that most presidential elections are won by the more attractive candidate, and to accept that in the current climate that's just the way it is (not that that makes it right).
- Probably the other major reason Obama is ahead at the moment is due to his huge financial advantage. It's almost a waste of time to mention that the oil-rich Bush family and the well-known Republican money machine contributed mightily to GW's two victories.
I'd like to think that with the almost infinite expansiveness of media lately, this $=win effect has become more and more important. Elections have always been about money, but naturally as the amount of money required simply to compete increases exponentially, so too does it's importance as a single end-all issue.

2. Using info I've absorbed partially through the excellent site http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ (warning: the editorial content is admittedly slanted), I can't help but see how this election could more and more likely turn into an electoral college rout, even though such a result would seem impossible given the tightness of recent presidential elections. I'm not saying now that McCain has no chance, but that if Obama wins as is currently expected, it could end up a much wider margin than expected.
Let's break it down a little:
Obama looks very safe in 16 states worth a total of 197 EC votes (the Northeast: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Marland, Deleware, and DC; the Pacific: California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii; plus his home state of Illinois and the corn capital of Iowa (McCain is strangely stubborn against biofuels)).
McCain is very safe in 16 states worth a total of 134 EC votes (the South: South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma; and the Great Plains: Kansas, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming; plus his home state of Arizona and Palin's home state of Alaska).
197 - 134 doesn't look terribly bad but to that we can add all the 10 states that are clearly favoring Obama right now (New Hampshire 4, plus the Big Ten: Pennsylvania 21, Michigan 17, Wisconsin 10, and Minnesota 10; plus "battleground" states of Florida 27, Virginia 13, Colorado 9, New Mexico 5, and Nevada 5). This adds a huge 121 EC votes to make it 318-134. Note that this also puts Obama well over the 270 needed to win, and we've only included states where he is currently in very good shape; there are still 86 votes unaccounted for.
If we give McCain three states he clearly leads in (Montana 3, North Dakota 3, and South Dakota 3), that only moves it to 318-143, with only six states left (Ohio 20, Indiana 11, North Carolina 15, Missouri 11, West Virginia 5, and Georgia 15).
For the purposes of this exercise, and because it's still almost four weeks to go, we are going to take some liberties. But if you look at the polls and give Obama wins in all the states we've already given him, then it becomes very easy to give Obama Ohio and Indiana. It's also not hard at all to assume that if he maintains a strong lead into November, that McCain's status will have deteriorated in many of these tight states, so that we can go ahead and turn current close Obama leads in Missouri and North Carolina into wins. It might end up closer than currently but go ahead and let McCain keep West Virginia.
This changes the total to 375-148, with only Georgia not counted. I think you would agree that 375-148 would be considered a pretty big victory, important insomuch that it would allow Obama and the Democrats to actually declare something close to an actual mandate, which is usually not much more than posturing but would have some credence considering a black man had won such support and in the process knocked off many states that had been recently locked in as Republican.
Let's turn for a second finally to Georgia. Georgia is a Deep South state. It would be big big news for a Democrat to win there, not to mention a black Democrat. But if Obama's national numbers mostly hold til election day, it's a real possibility.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.html
This is a good and interesting synopsis. He might need to gain a point or two generally but support of blacks and a higher-than-usual turnout (indicative of his superior organization possible through his vast budget) could actually push him over the top. It's something worth watching as a barometer for how some extremely important beneath-the-surface issues will play out all around the country.
Unless something big happens to change the course of the election, I think everything is going to start cascading for Obama and lead him to a huge victory. The likability factor will keep him ahead in the polls and his massive funding advantage will turn all these little things in his favor. In the end, he probably won't even need both advantage, just one or the other would suffice.