Some Unbiased Politics Talk (I Promise)

1. It's almost October and Obama holds a small but significant lead in the polls, so I think it's a fair time to think macro about this whole election business. I say this now from a completely unbiased perspective: it's pretty damn exciting to think that Obama--a black man--might actually become President. Exciting in a general sense and exciting in a historic sense. Exciting like it was exciting during the recent Olympics to consider that Michael Phelps had a real shot to win eight gold medals. And whether or not you were completely turned off by Mr Phelps's incredibly annoying speech impediment or his huge Michigan douchebag quotient, you were no doubt influenced by the mere spectacle of what he was trying to do.
We're talking about a black President here. This is not a small thing. And he beat a woman to get there. Suddenly it seems almost anything is possible. Remember that just recently it wasn't at all extraordinary to ask whether there would ever be a black president in the US.
So I guess this election in some basic and non-cheesy ways really is about hope and change. Not the adopted and bastardized "hope" and "change" that have been enlisted for the joint purpose and glory of power and of course party, but the real, simple meanings of the words. Hope for any marginalized entity. Hope that something different, or something unexpected, or something unentitled can break the paradigm. It's probably not "Change you can believe in," but it's still an honest-to-goodness change, and that's all we really need. The rules really are changing, if at least superficially. Small steps, you know. Unfortunately people are going to pick up on these larger issues and they're going to focus on them and generalize. But as long as you don't completely buy into the manufactured image, and see past the pomp, and don't get carried away by people falling over themselves to say something iconic about the event, you can hopefully sit back and quietly appreciate what may be happening. It's quite certainly never going to be the same again.
2. (for the liberals) Let's face it folks, if he's elected, Obama is going to disappoint you. He's going to be indecisive sometimes and he's going to stutter and stammer and sound unprepared at a press conference. He's going to go off-the-cuff sometime and say something stupid and/or insensitive. He's going to make a horrible appointment based solely on party affiliation. He's going to compromise his--and your--values more than once. He's going to lose touch. He's going to sell out to the conservatives. Let's repeat that one: he's going to sell out to the conservatives. He's just a man, and he'll be trying to do a difficult job in a difficult time and place. There is only so much a president can do, good or bad. Let him have his failures and his successes and don't begrudge him for them.
3. I'm way late for the party on this one, but this whole Palin circus has gone from funny to discomforting to almost frightening. Traditionally, the election is not about the VP, it is never about the VP, they have virtually no effect on the votes or the policy of the eventual winner (let's excuse Mr Cheney and the ridiculously-expanded-power-for-the-executive-branch zealots for a moment here). But there are two very important things that make this election somewhat unique (actually one super important thing that is multiplied by another thing):
a. Sarah Palin might very well be less qualified than I am, and
b. John McCain is very old and in case you haven't heard has lived a fairly difficult life. You can be fairly sure that today's medicine and doctors wouldn't let the maverick kick the bucket in the White House, but some things can prove unavoidable.
I'm not sure who the worst Vice Presidents ever are, but what I do know is that none of them ever became President. 99 times out of 100 who the VP should be irrelevant when choosing a President. This is that one time. She's so clearly inept and he's so clearly incapble of getting cheap life insurance that for once you really do have to consider the running mate.
Supposedly, there is actually a chance she's replaced on the ticket, but if that were to happen it wouldn't really matter who the replacement is cause McCain would have no shot unless Jesus Christ reappears (sorry Jews--"appears") and starts talking about the dangers of big government.
4. (to the liberals and ambulence-chaser-types) I hate to break it to you, but Ms Palin is not going to explode in a blast of incompetence in the debate Thursday night. She probably won't even get demolished. Her recent struggles have served to bring expectations of her to essentially zero, so by definition her performance must improve. She will have had the most intense preparation and coaching that probably any prospective national-level debater has ever had by the time she hits the stage, and much like all politicians will appear more informed and likable than she/they really is/are. She will also have the benefit of everyone tuning in just to watch her, so as long as she can stay upright and lets the moderator do his/her job in sending questions around equally, people will naturally be inclined to believe her and more importantly sympathize with her. Most importantly, after she completes the debate respectably, the media will be so itching to get out a story to counteract all the justifiably negative stories they've been running that they'll overcompensate and give her loads of credit for merely being passable. Joe Biden will be absolutely crushed if he attacks her and so will be left answering direct questions with indirect and circular answers (which will bore watchers) or with constant attacks on McCain (which will turn off watchers). His presence will at best be inconsequential for the Democrats, so if they're smart they'll feed him a few prepared sound bites and just wait for his opportunity to release them. There is almost no chance that this debate will be nearly as entertaining as it potentially could be.