Fun with the Ratings

Before I get to the pitcher factors, I'm happy to say that I've upgraded the ratings, and they are clearly the better for it.
As it turns out, regressing the ratings 50% toward preseason projections was much too conservative, so now they're only being regressed 30%. The Vegas lines, which remember are the sole inputs of my system, are so good that even just 20 games worth of lines is enough to produce a very clear picture of team value. The ratings now have a much truer look and I don't have the bunching problem I mentioned the other day.
Secondly, I was doing my opponent adjustment wrong. Not to get into it too much, but for example, I had the Yankees' unadjusted rating of about .600 being adjusted down despite the factor that their opponent rating was .530, which is obviously not right.
The last thing I've cleaned up is to finally add in opponent values for interleague games. I had debated what to do with this. Because the AL is vastly superior to the NL, some additional adjustment beyond home-field seemed necessary, I just wasn't sure what it should be. Some searching let me know that the adjustment should be between .050 and .060 per team, meaning an NL team should be deducted and an AL team given that much. This is a big number. For instance, adding in the deduction, the best NL team, Philadelphia, when playing the AL is only as good as Milwaukee. Or going the other way, Kansas City versus the NL becomes as good as the Angels. Anyway, after explaining all that, I decided not to add any adjustment at all. All AL teams play the same number of interleague games (18), so it wouldn't matter. And in the NL, twelve of the teams play 15 games, while only four play 18. Those last four teams are the only ones who'd be affected by an adjustment, and it would be just .050 per opponent over just three games, which equates to a shade under .001 per game. I decided this wasn't worth the effort. Create your own damn system if you feel otherwise.

Here then are the fixed ratings, updated through games played last night.

Yankees .619
Red Sox .574
Rays .550
Twins .538
Rangers .522
Angels .514
White Sox .510
Mariners .497
Tigers .495
Athletics .487
Indians .477
Royals .454
Blue Jays .453
Orioles .451

Phillies .5752
Cardinals .5748
Braves .554
Dodgers .550
Rockies .540
Cubs .524
Brewers .512
Marlins .5093
Giants .5092
Dbacks .506
Padres .482
Reds .480
Mets .476
Astros .447
Nationals .438
Pirates .426

The Braves are the one team that looks clearly odd. They are in last place with an 8-14 record, and have lost 9 straight games, and yet they're not terribly far behind the two best teams in their league according to my numbers (you could just as easily say "according to Vegas" here). So let's look a little closer at them.
Their lines have been coming down lately, but not hugely so. Their schedule has been very difficult, averaging .542, second-toughest in the league. In four recent games played at St Louis, they were actually the favorite in one of them. In a three game series at home vs Philly, they were somewhat large favorites in both of the non-Halladay games. I don't know what to say, other than I fully expect their rating to come down in the coming weeks.

Now, on to the pitcher factors. I say "factors" and not "ratings" because these are not ratings of each pitcher's quality, but just a measurement of how each pitcher affects his team's rating. In spite of this, the list I'll unveil in a second is still largely intuitive on its own. This owing to the fact that usually good pitchers play for good teams, and--within each team's pitching staff--there is usually a pretty similar drop-off from the top guy on down to the replacement starters, so that while Zach Greinke is awesome and the Royals are poor, so too is Dan Haren awesome but his teammates weak.
Each rating is based on 100. (Mostly for looks. They ought to be based on 1.00, really.) To adjust an individual team line, just multiply the pitcher factor (Lincecum is 1.25, not 125) by the team rating. Simple.
The top ten from each league:
AL
1. Felix Hernandez 120
2. Zach Greinke 120
3. Justin Verlander 112
4. CC Sabathia 110
5. Brett Anderson 108
6. Ricky Romero 107.5
7. Shaun Marcum 106
8. Jake Peavy 105.5
9. Mark Buehrle 105
10. Matt Garza 104

NL
1. Tim Lincecum 125
2. Roy Halladay 121
3. Johan Santana 115
4. Dan Haren 114
5. Ubaldo Jimenez 113
6. Adam Wainwright 113
7. Chris Carpenter 112
8. Josh Johnson 112
9. Yovani Gallardo 110
10. Ricky Nolasco 108
10. Cole Hamels 108

For completeness, there are four pitchers with factors below 90: Kris Benson, Todd Wellemeyer, Dan McCutchen, Chris Narveson and the worst: Dontrelle Willis. Vegas hates them some Dontrelle Willis, so much that his mere presence in the Tigers rotation increases the factors of every other Detroit starter by a point or two.

Finally, some errata from the pitching numbers.
- The Braves' opening day starter, Derek Lowe, is only his team's fourth-best. Their best is actually their youngest, Tommy Hanson.
- Barry Zito's resurgence is not lost on Vegas. His first start rated around 95, but his most recent is up to 102. Mike Pelfrey of the Mets has had a similar increase, but to a lesser extent.
- Going the other way and getting worse: Rich Harden, John Maine, and sorta Jake Peavy.
- Jon Lester has overtaken World Series Hero Josh Beckett as the ace of the Red Sox.
- Vicente Padilla, Joe Torre's genius pick to start opening day for LA, is very nearly the Dodgers' worst starter.
- The recently-demoted-to-the-bullpen Carlos Zambrano was still very clearly rating as the Cubs' best starter.
- The most balanced pitching staff is pretty obviously the Reds, with four starters rating between 99 and 101, and the fifth is a rookie who overall rates at just 94, but his most recent game scored a 100. Honorable mention to the Angels, with all five between 97 and 102.
- The biggest possible mismatch within leagues would be Roy Halladay at home facing Pittsburgh's Dan McCutchen. Philly would be expected to win that game over 83% of the time. For an interleague game, CC Sabathia at home against McCutchen would produce a win expectation of over 88% for the Yankees.